Climatic extremes and maize production in the soudano-sahelian and soudanian zones of Burkina Faso

Abstract

Climate is an important factor in crop production. The assessment of the potential effects of climate change on
agriculture has leaded research area for the past decade. The objective of the study was to assess the effects of
climate extremes on maize production in Bobo-Dioulasso and Dédougou, Burkina Faso. Using multiple linear
regression models, maize production was estimated for each locality, as a function of climat ic variables (rainfall
and temperature) on the one hand and the excesses of these variables on the other, over the period 1984 to 2018.
Extreme Value Theory was used to determine the thresholds of the climate variables, through the "Peaks-Over
Threshold" approach. Simulations were made based on forecasts from the MAGICC/SCENGEN model of the
National Program for Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso. The results showed that rainfall and
temperature variables have a positive effect on maize production in the study areas. However, the rainfalls
exceeding the 168 mm threshold have a negative effect on maize production in Bobo-Dioulasso. The scenarios of
rainfall decreasing and / or temperatures increasing from the MAGICC / SCENGEN model are very damaging to
maize production in Bobo-Dioulasso.