Risk of chronic kidney disease in Burkina Faso, spatio-temporal analysis from 2013 to 2022

Abstract

Risk of chronic kidney disease in Burkina Faso, spatio-temporal analysis from 2013 to 2022

Abstract

Introduction:

Chronic kidney disease and chronic renal failure are on the rise in Burkina Faso. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of chronic renal failure from 2013 to 2022. Our findings will provide valuable insights to guide policymakers in developing necessary interventions.

Materials and Methods:

We extracted data on chronic renal failure cases from 2013 to 2022 from the Ministry of Health's data repository. We then mapped the evolution of the standardized relative risk, modeled the risk using a Bayesian spatio-temporal model with a negative binomial distribution, and assessed the excess risk across the 70 health districts of the country.

Results:

The crude incidence of chronic renal failure (CRF) increased from 0.080‰ in 2013 to 0.400‰ in 2022. The districts of Baskuy (5.2‰ in 2017, 3.5‰ in 2020, and 6.48‰ in 2022), Do (1.95‰ in 2018 and 4.29‰ in 2022), Tenkodogo (2.31‰ in 2021), and Gaoua (3.29‰ in 2021) recorded the highest incidence rates during this period. After standardization and modeling, these same districts, where dialysis centers are located, showed the highest risks. The overall modeled baseline risk of CRF was 0.231 (95% CI: 0.141-0.372) for the study period.

Conclusion:

The incidence of chronic renal failure is steadily increasing, particularly in districts with dialysis centers. It is essential to strengthen preventive measures and increase the number of dialysis centers.

Keywords: Chronic renal failure, relative risk, spatio-temporal, Burkina Faso